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A catastrophic earthquake will happen on Earth

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Travel Articles >> Curiosities

In the next 10 years the Earth will experience a powerful earthquake that will have the scale of the catastrophe at the shores of Indonesia in 2004, when hundreds of thousands of people became victims. The Russian scientists warn about the threat that have created a model of prediction of the seismic catastrophes.

The research group of the Moscow International Institute of the earthquake prognosis theory and the mathematical geophysics, RAN RF has created an algorithm that elaborates prognoses of the place and time where mega-earthquakes can occur. The leading scientists, doctor of the physical-mathematical sciences Vladimir Kosobokov has announced the results of the research at the international conference of the European geophysical union that took place last week in Vienna.

The scientists have found out that the powerful earthquakes have their clear cycle and their power ascends by the end of the cycle. With the use of their model, the Russian scientists came to a conclusion that the next seismic catastrophe will happen in 2018 and it's consequences will be comparable with the catastrophe at the shore of Sumatra.

On the 26-th of December 2004 in the Indian ocean, to the west of the Indonesian island Sumatra there was an earthquake with the magnitude of 9-9,3 Richter - the second powerful one for the last 100 years. The wave of the following tsunami has taken the live of more than 280 thousands of people and another three million of people have lost their homes.

The greatest loss has experienced Indonesia that has been covered by the 30-meters waves. Among the victims were also Thailand, Malaysia, India, Maldives and Seychelles, Sri-Lanka, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Somali, Tanzania, Kenya, SAR and Yemen. More than 7 thousands of foreign tourists died at the resorts.

In the prognosis of the Russian scientists, the Indonesian island Sumatra is in the list of the 5 most probable epicenters of the future earthquake. Besides, according to the researchers, the demolishing catastrophe can happen in the western part of the border between USA and Canada, in Chile, Cashmere and in the Indian Ocean near the Andaman Шыдфтвыю

In spite of the high development level of the modern seismology, the prediction of the earthquakes with high probability is still a field of research. And even the prognosis of the RAN Institute specialists is not very exact one.

The nature of the seismic catastrophes is quite clear: they happen at the places of tectonic breaks, that have been formed during millions of years. The Earth's crust breaks in the places of collapse of the giant lithospheric plates. And all the seismically dangerous areas are currently well-known. But the best minds of the humanity are unable to calculate the date of the catastrophe up to the day or even the year.

The moving average scientific prognosis of the seismic activity is quite reliable, that is given for the next couple of years and is reviewed every half a year. But according to the Geological Bureau of the USA, the short-term prognosis will be impossible at least for the next half of the century.

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Article Submitted On: April 28, 2008